Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

VERIFIED Consensus: 28.2% · verified spread 0.0pt

repriced -3.0pt over 24h, led by Kalshi

Kalshi Mid

27.5%

Polymarket Mid

29.0%

Match Confidence

78%

Liquidity Score

55/100

Verification Signals

Kalshi Polymarket Consensus

Time (UTC)	Kalshi Mid	Polymarket Mid	Consensus
2026-06-16 18:50:10 UTC	27.5%	29.0%	28%
2026-06-16 18:40:15 UTC	27.5%	29.0%	28%
2026-06-16 18:30:15 UTC	27.5%	29.0%	28%
2026-06-16 18:26:25 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 18:20:12 UTC	27.5%	29.0%	28%
2026-06-16 18:10:21 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 18:05:55 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 18:00:25 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 17:50:15 UTC	27.5%	29.0%	28%
2026-06-16 17:40:16 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 17:30:10 UTC	27.5%	29.0%	28%
2026-06-16 17:20:16 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 17:10:11 UTC	27.5%	29.0%	28%
2026-06-16 17:00:12 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 16:50:20 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 16:40:15 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 16:30:13 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 16:20:16 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 16:10:10 UTC	27.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 16:00:21 UTC	27.5%	29.0%	28%
2026-06-16 15:50:10 UTC	28.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 15:47:13 UTC	28.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 15:40:16 UTC	28.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 15:30:28 UTC	28.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 15:20:15 UTC	28.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 15:11:42 UTC	28.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 15:10:09 UTC	28.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 15:00:10 UTC	28.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 14:50:09 UTC	28.5%	29.5%	29%
2026-06-16 14:40:32 UTC	28.5%	29.5%	29%

as of 2026-06-16 18:50:10 UTC method: match v1.0