Liquified LIVE DATA
Book World Cup Waitlist
LIVE · 2026-09-10 16:05:07 UTC
MARKETS · 22 MATCHED EVENTS

Where the two biggest prediction markets disagree

One screen for the real odds across Kalshi + Polymarket — live consolidated order books, side by side
9 LIVE
13 ERROR
No verified divergence - gaps below are framing mismatches
85.1pt
Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026
MIRAGE deadline differs
 21.2pt
Bitcoin reaches $100k threshold in 2026
MIRAGE These events do not represent the same underlying economic outcome. While both concern Bitcoin price in 2026, the Kalshi event requires >$99
 17.2pt
JD Vance wins 2028 Presidential Election
MIRAGE source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright)
Bitcoin reaches $100k threshold in 2026
LIVE
ID: LIQ_BTC_100K_2026
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
33.9K
shares
Liquidity
79
K: KXBTCMAXY-26… P: will-bitcoin…
MISMATCH These events do not represent the same underlying economic outcome. While both concern Bitcoin price in 2026, the Kalshi event requires >$99 i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.2300 560 560 K
0.2200 1.2K 1.8K K
0.2100 680 2.4K K
0.2000 68 2.5K K
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0260 542 542 P
0.0290 13 555 P
0.0340 50 605 P
0.0360 1.4K 2.0K P
Bitcoin reaches $150k threshold in 2026
ERROR
ID: LIQ_BTC_150K_2026
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Bitcoin reaches $200k threshold in 2026
ERROR
ID: LIQ_BTC_200K_2026
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Ethereum reaches $4,000 by end of 2026
LIVE
ID: LIQ_ETH_4K_2026
Mid-Price
$0.1450
Synthetic
Spread
100 bps
bps
Depth ±500bps
18.8K
shares
Liquidity
56
K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…
CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events measure the same underlying outcome (ETH > $4,000) with the same directional intent and similar timeframes (end of 2026). Howeve i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.1400 1.1K 1.1K K
0.1300 1.1K 2.2K P
0.1300 105 2.3K K
0.1200 3.2K 5.5K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.1500 1.0K 1.0K P
0.1600 473 1.5K P
0.1600 125 1.6K K
0.1700 240 1.9K K
Ethereum reaches $5,000 by end of 2026
LIVE
ID: LIQ_ETH_5K_2026
Mid-Price
$0.0525
Synthetic
Spread
-50 bps
bps
Depth ±500bps
262.3K
shares
Liquidity
100
K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…
CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events resolve on the same underlying outcome (ETH > $5,000 by end of 2026) with nearly identical deadlines (Jan 1, 2027 vs Dec 31, 202 i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0550 450 450 P
0.0540 600 1.1K P
0.0510 137 1.2K P
0.0500 400 1.6K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0500 100 100 K
0.0600 901 1.0K K
0.0630 161 1.2K P
0.0670 1.1K 2.3K P
JD Vance wins 2028 Presidential Election
LIVE
ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_VANCE
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
396.3K
shares
Liquidity
95
K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-jd-vanc…
MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.2420 923 923 P
0.2410 2.7K 3.6K P
0.2400 7.5K 11.1K P
0.2390 1.0K 12.2K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.1100 418 418 K
0.2100 135 553 K
0.2430 11.3K 11.8K P
0.2440 4.4K 16.2K P
Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Election
LIVE
ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_NEWSOM
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
177.6K
shares
Liquidity
95
K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-gavin-n…
MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0720 4.2K 4.2K P
0.0710 7.5K 11.7K P
0.0700 17.2K 28.9K P
0.0690 200 29.1K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0500 250 250 K
0.0730 1.8K 2.0K P
0.0740 779 2.8K P
0.0760 499 3.3K P
AOC wins 2028 Presidential Election
LIVE
ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_AOC
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
253.0K
shares
Liquidity
95
K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-alexand…
MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.1320 18.2K 18.2K P
0.1310 237 18.4K P
0.1300 20.2K 38.6K P
0.1280 2.1K 40.7K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0400 420 420 K
0.0600 200 620 K
0.1330 8.8K 9.5K P
0.1340 220 9.7K P
National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027
LIVE
ID: LIQ_BTC_RESERVE_2027
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
63.7K
shares
Liquidity
86
K: KXBTCRESERVE… P: us-national-…
MISMATCH threshold differs i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0640 9 9 K
0.0580 200 209 K
0.0420 46 255 K
0.0410 427 682 K
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0700 98 98 P
0.0900 15 113 P
0.0940 117 230 K
0.0950 3.9K 4.1K K
Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026
LIVE
ID: LIQ_FED_CUT_2026
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
28.0K
shares
Liquidity
75
K: KXRATECUT-26… P: will-no-fed-…
MISMATCH deadline differs i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.9310 628 628 P
0.9300 50 678 P
0.9290 75 753 P
0.9280 347 1.1K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0870 27 27 K
0.0880 15 42 K
0.0890 36 78 K
0.0900 258 336 K
US Recession by end of 2026
LIVE
ID: LIQ_US_RECESSION_2026
Mid-Price
$0.0750
Synthetic
Spread
100 bps
bps
Depth ±500bps
32.3K
shares
Liquidity
55
K: KXGDP-26JUL3… P: us-recession…
MISMATCH K: Real GDP increase > 1.0% in Q2 2026… | P: US Recession by end of 2026… i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0700 2.1K 2.1K P
0.0600 4.6K 6.6K P
0.0500 2.4K 9.0K P
0.0400 6.6K 15.6K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0800 1.3K 1.3K P
0.0900 2.2K 3.6K P
0.1000 1.0K 4.6K P
0.1100 500 5.1K P
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_BRAZIL_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ARGENTINA_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_FRANCE_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ENGLAND_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_QF
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Portugal reach the Final at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_PORTUGAL_FINAL
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_R16
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_SF
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
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