Where the two biggest prediction markets disagree

One screen for the real odds across Kalshi + Polymarket — live consolidated order books, side by side

23 LIVE

Verified divergence - match-checked

7.7pt

Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Election

Kalshi 7.0% vs Polymarket 14.8% VERIFIED ≈ $387 / $5k if gap closes

4.0pt

Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Kalshi 33.0% vs Polymarket 29.0% VERIFIED ≈ $200 / $5k if gap closes

2.0pt

Will Portugal reach the Final at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Kalshi 18.5% vs Polymarket 20.5% VERIFIED ≈ $100 / $5k if gap closes

73.5pt

US Recession by end of 2026

MIRAGE threshold differs · source differs

60.1pt

Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026

MIRAGE deadline differs

45.8pt

Bitcoin reaches $200k threshold in 2026

MIRAGE deadline differs · threshold differs · source differs

Bitcoin reaches $100k threshold in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_100K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.1300

Synthetic

Spread

-1000 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

43.7K

Liquidity

K: KXBTCMAXY-26… P: will-bitcoin…

MISMATCH K: Bitcoin price > $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 20… | P: Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1800 2.6K 2.6K K

0.1700 388 3.0K K

0.1600 50 3.1K K

0.1500 1.0K 4.1K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0800 6.5K 6.5K P

0.0900 4.8K 11.3K P

0.1000 3.7K 14.9K P

0.1300 200 15.1K P

Bitcoin reaches $150k threshold in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_150K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0220

Synthetic

Spread

-360 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

606.5K

Liquidity

K: KXBTCMAXY-26… P: will-bitcoin…

MISMATCH K: Bitcoin price > $149,999.99 by Dec 31, 2… | P: Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0400 2.3K 2.3K K

0.0300 10.9K 13.2K K

0.0200 38.0K 51.2K K

0.0100 87.9K 139.1K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0040 13.2K 13.2K P

0.0050 86 13.3K P

0.0060 1.0K 14.4K P

0.0070 15.3K 29.7K P

Bitcoin reaches $200k threshold in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_200K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.2660

Synthetic

Spread

-4520 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

16.8K

Liquidity

K: KXBTCMAXY-26… P: will-bitcoin…

MISMATCH K: Bitcoin price > $199,999.99 by Dec 31, 2… | P: Bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.4920 52.5K 52.5K P

0.4910 20 52.5K P

0.4900 1.5K 54.0K P

0.4830 2.0K 56.0K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0400 6.4K 6.4K K

0.0500 45.0K 51.5K K

0.0600 500 52.0K K

0.0700 10.6K 62.6K K

Ethereum reaches $4,000 by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ETH_4K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.1000

Synthetic

Spread

200 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

37.7K

Liquidity

K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…

MISMATCH K: Ethereum price > $4,000 by Jan 1, 2027… | P: Ethereum reaches $4,000 by December 31, … i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0900 1.1K 1.1K P

0.0900 832 1.9K K

0.0800 3.2K 5.2K P

0.0700 2.0K 7.2K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1100 1.3K 1.3K P

0.1200 3.2K 4.4K P

0.1200 2.6K 7.1K K

0.1300 5.5K 12.6K K

Ethereum reaches $5,000 by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ETH_5K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0650

Synthetic

Spread

-100 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

68.9K

Liquidity

100

K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…

MISMATCH K: Ethereum price > $5,000 by Jan 1, 2027… | P: Ethereum reaches $5,000 by December 31, … i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0700 110 110 P

0.0600 905 1.0K P

0.0500 4.3K 5.3K P

0.0500 958 6.3K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0600 70 70 K

0.0700 5.7K 5.8K K

0.0800 4.5K 10.3K K

0.0800 1.4K 11.7K P

JD Vance wins 2028 Presidential Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_VANCE

Mid-Price

$0.1495

Synthetic

Spread

10 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

538.1K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-jd-vanc…

MISMATCH K: JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom in 2028… | P: JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential E… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1490 2.5K 2.5K P

0.1480 1.3K 3.7K P

0.1470 3.5K 7.2K P

0.1450 4.0K 11.2K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1500 2.0K 2.0K P

0.1500 256 2.3K K

0.1510 595 2.9K P

0.1520 24.0K 26.9K P

Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_NEWSOM

Mid-Price

$0.1135

Synthetic

Spread

-670 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

108.4K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-gavin-n…

MISMATCH K: Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio in 2028… | P: Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 US Presidenti… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1470 369 369 P

0.1460 63 432 P

0.1450 241 674 P

0.1440 202 876 P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0800 250 250 K

0.0900 10 260 K

0.1000 919 1.2K K

0.1400 410 1.6K K

Donald Trump wins 2028 Election (Demo)

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_TRUMP

Mid-Price

$0.0325

Synthetic

Spread

-350 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

5.23M

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-donald-…

MISMATCH K: Marco Rubio (R) defeats Gavin Newsom (D)… | P: Donald Trump wins the 2028 US Presidenti… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0500 713 713 K

0.0400 500 1.2K K

0.0300 400 1.6K K

0.0200 556 2.2K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0150 856 856 P

0.0160 2.1K 3.0K P

0.0170 41.9K 44.9K P

0.0180 10.5K 55.4K P

AOC wins 2028 Presidential Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_AOC

Mid-Price

$0.0410

Synthetic

Spread

-220 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

3.19M

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-alexand…

MISMATCH K: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeats Marco R… | P: AOC wins the 2028 US Presidential Electi… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0520 23.2K 23.2K P

0.0510 738 23.9K P

0.0500 13.8K 37.7K P

0.0490 572 38.3K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0300 250 250 K

0.0400 10 260 K

0.0500 900 1.2K K

0.0530 19.5K 20.6K P

National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_RESERVE_2027

Mid-Price

$0.2250

Synthetic

Spread

-100 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

7.3K

Liquidity

K: KXBTCRESERVE… P: us-national-…

MISMATCH K: Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve … | P: US National Bitcoin Reserve created befo… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2300 465 465 P

0.2200 208 672 P

0.2100 62 734 K

0.2000 1.0K 1.8K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2200 561 561 K

0.2300 3.4K 4.0K K

0.2400 384 4.3K K

0.2700 1.0K 5.4K K

Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_FED_CUT_2026

Mid-Price

$0.4920

Synthetic

Spread

-5920 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

4.5K

Liquidity

K: KXRATECUT-26… P: will-no-fed-…

MISMATCH K: Fed cuts rates before 2027… | P: NO Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 (Side-In… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.7880 4.7K 4.7K P

0.7870 708 5.4K P

0.7860 2.3K 7.7K P

0.7850 218 8.0K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1960 1 1 K

0.1970 60 61 K

0.1980 100 161 K

0.2030 673 834 K

US Recession by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_US_RECESSION_2026

Mid-Price

$0.5250

Synthetic

Spread

-6900 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

1.1K

Liquidity

K: KXGDP-26JUL3… P: us-recession…

MISMATCH K: Real GDP increase > 1.0% in Q2 2026… | P: US Recession by end of 2026… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.8700 1 1 K

0.8600 3 4 K

0.8500 1.0K 1.0K K

0.8100 350 1.4K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1800 1.3K 1.3K P

0.1900 351 1.7K P

0.2000 10.8K 12.5K P

0.2200 665 13.2K P

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_BRAZIL_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.0870

Synthetic

Spread

—

bps

Depth ±500bps

5.71M

Liquidity

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-brazil-…

MISMATCH K: Brazil wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: Brazil wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0870 29.1K 29.1K K

0.0860 133.9K 163.1K P

0.0860 9.2K 172.3K K

0.0850 196.6K 368.8K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0870 641.7K 641.7K P

0.0880 765.9K 1.41M P

0.0880 311.2K 1.72M K

0.0890 133.9K 1.85M K

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ARGENTINA_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.0885

Synthetic

Spread

10 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

4.94M

Liquidity

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-argenti…

MISMATCH K: Argentina wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: Argentina wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0880 141.4K 141.4K P

0.0880 31.4K 172.8K K

0.0870 80.5K 253.2K P

0.0870 1.5K 254.8K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0890 604.5K 604.5K P

0.0890 310.0K 914.5K K

0.0900 172.5K 1.09M K

0.0900 13.3K 1.10M P

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.0140

Synthetic

Spread

-40 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

24.77M

Liquidity

100

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-usa-win…

MISMATCH K: USA wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: USA wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0160 60.6K 60.6K K

0.0150 217.4K 278.0K K

0.0140 216.5K 494.5K K

0.0130 5.2K 499.8K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0120 1.23M 1.23M P

0.0130 551.9K 1.78M P

0.0140 764.8K 2.55M P

0.0150 636.3K 3.18M P

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.0170

Synthetic

Spread

-60 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

17.67M

Liquidity

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-mexico-…

MISMATCH K: Mexico wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: Mexico wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0200 12.3K 12.3K K

0.0190 38 12.4K K

0.0180 42.5K 54.9K K

0.0170 12.5K 67.4K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0140 193.7K 193.7K P

0.0150 200 193.9K P

0.0160 141.5K 335.4K P

0.0170 150.4K 485.8K P

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_FRANCE_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.1650

Synthetic

Spread

-80 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

11.39M

Liquidity

100

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-france-…

MISMATCH K: France wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: France wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1690 2.7K 2.7K K

0.1660 2 2.7K K

0.1650 1.1K 3.8K K

0.1640 1.6K 5.5K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1610 970.8K 970.8K P

0.1620 186.6K 1.16M P

0.1630 50.4K 1.21M P

0.1640 26.9K 1.23M P

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.1715

Synthetic

Spread

-30 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

12.05M

Liquidity

100

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-spain-w…

MISMATCH K: Spain wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: Spain wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1730 8.0K 8.0K K

0.1720 6.0K 14.0K K

0.1710 1.5K 15.5K K

0.1700 2.5K 18.0K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1700 675.3K 675.3K P

0.1710 50.5K 725.8K P

0.1720 17.9K 743.7K P

0.1730 7.5K 751.2K P

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ENGLAND_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.1065

Synthetic

Spread

-10 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

15.77M

Liquidity

100

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-england…

MISMATCH K: England wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: England wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1070 95.8K 95.8K K

0.1060 4.7K 100.5K K

0.1050 40.7K 141.3K P

0.1050 1.0K 142.3K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1060 806.7K 806.7K P

0.1070 51.2K 857.9K P

0.1080 523.0K 1.38M K

0.1080 3.5K 1.38M P

Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_QF

Mid-Price

$0.3100

Synthetic

Spread

-200 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

11.7K

Liquidity

K: KXWCROUND-26… P: will-mexico-…

MISMATCH K: Mexico qualifies for the Quarterfinals o… | P: Mexico reaches the Quarterfinals of the … i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.3200 1.3K 1.3K K

0.3100 1.7K 3.0K K

0.2800 40 3.0K P

0.2700 305 3.3K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.3000 745 745 P

0.3100 279 1.0K P

0.3200 314 1.3K P

0.3300 347 1.7K P

Will Portugal reach the Final at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_PORTUGAL_FINAL

Mid-Price

$0.1950

Synthetic

Spread

-100 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

43.1K

Liquidity

K: KXWCROUND-26… P: will-portuga…

MISMATCH K: Portugal qualifies for the Final of the … | P: Portugal reaches the Final of the 2026 F… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2000 220 220 P

0.1900 7.6K 7.9K P

0.1800 7.3K 15.1K K

0.1800 2.7K 17.9K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1900 860 860 K

0.2000 75 935 K

0.2100 9.3K 10.2K K

0.2100 1.1K 11.3K P

Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_R16

Mid-Price

$0.5000

Synthetic

Spread

—

bps

Depth ±500bps

61.4K

Liquidity

K: KXWCROUND-26… P: will-usa-rea…

MISMATCH K: USA qualifies for the Round of 16 of the… | P: USA reaches the Round of 16 of the 2026 … i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.5000 55 55 P

0.4900 10.2K 10.3K K

0.4900 50 10.3K P

0.4800 2.1K 12.4K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.5000 35.7K 35.7K K

0.5100 1.9K 37.6K P

0.5100 859 38.4K K

0.5200 23 38.5K K

Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_SF

Mid-Price

$0.4550

Synthetic

Spread

100 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

17.3K

Liquidity

K: KXWCROUND-26… P: will-spain-r…

MISMATCH K: Spain qualifies for the Semifinals of th… | P: Spain reaches the Semifinals of the 2026… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.4500 1.8K 1.8K K

0.4400 2.2K 4.0K K

0.4400 45 4.1K P

0.4300 196 4.3K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.4600 2.5K 2.5K K

0.4700 1.1K 3.6K K

0.4700 164 3.7K P

0.4800 650 4.4K P

Get divergence alerts

When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by more than 5 points on the same event, we’ll send you the event and both prices. No noise, only signal.