Where the two biggest prediction markets disagree

MISMATCH These events do not represent the same underlying economic outcome. While both concern Bitcoin price in 2026, the Kalshi event requires >$99 i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2000 128 128 K

0.1900 1.4K 1.6K K

0.1800 3.7K 5.2K K

0.1700 1.2K 6.4K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0270 5 5 P

0.0280 60 65 P

0.0290 813 878 P

0.0300 3.7K 4.6K P

Bitcoin reaches $150k threshold in 2026

ERROR

ID: LIQ_BTC_150K_2026

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Bitcoin reaches $200k threshold in 2026

ERROR

ID: LIQ_BTC_200K_2026

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Ethereum reaches $4,000 by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ETH_4K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0900

Synthetic

Spread

-200 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

36.0K

Liquidity

K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…

CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events measure the same underlying outcome (ETH > $4,000) with the same directional intent and similar timeframes (end of 2026). Howeve i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1000 65 65 K

0.0900 179 244 K

0.0800 125 369 K

0.0700 1.1K 1.5K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0800 3.0K 3.0K P

0.0900 4.1K 7.1K P

0.1000 2.2K 9.3K P

0.1100 4.9K 14.2K K

Ethereum reaches $5,000 by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ETH_5K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0325

Synthetic

Spread

30 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

461.3K

Liquidity

K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…

CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events resolve on the same underlying outcome (ETH > $5,000 by end of 2026) with nearly identical deadlines (Jan 1, 2027 vs Dec 31, 202 i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0310 5 5 P

0.0300 768 773 P

0.0300 142 915 K

0.0290 9.7K 10.7K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0340 2.0K 2.0K P

0.0360 5.0K 7.0K P

0.0380 106 7.1K P

0.0390 1.1K 8.2K P

JD Vance wins 2028 Presidential Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_VANCE

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

329.7K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-jd-vanc…

MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2040 1.1K 1.1K P

0.2030 348 1.4K P

0.2020 185 1.6K P

0.2000 566 2.2K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1300 265 265 K

0.1400 85 350 K

0.1500 85 435 K

0.1600 178 613 K

Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_NEWSOM

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

369.8K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-gavin-n…

MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1030 3.1K 3.1K P

0.1010 50 3.1K P

0.1000 250 3.4K P

0.0990 50 3.4K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0600 1 1 K

0.0700 20 21 K

0.0800 32 53 K

0.0900 250 303 K

AOC wins 2028 Presidential Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_AOC

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

433.7K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-alexand…

MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1250 20.1K 20.1K P

0.1220 400 20.4K P

0.1210 7.1K 27.5K P

0.1200 21.0K 48.5K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0400 306 306 K

0.0500 201 507 K

0.0600 1 508 K

0.0700 1 509 K

National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_RESERVE_2027

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

102.8K

Liquidity

K: KXBTCRESERVE… P: us-national-…

MISMATCH threshold differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0400 950 950 P

0.0350 209 1.2K K

0.0340 1.2K 2.4K K

0.0330 200 2.6K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0430 1.0K 1.0K K

0.0440 101 1.1K K

0.0460 34 1.2K K

0.0480 81 1.2K K

Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_FED_CUT_2026

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

13.3K

Liquidity

K: KXRATECUT-26… P: will-no-fed-…

MISMATCH deadline differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.9690 509 509 P

0.9660 57 566 P

0.9650 390 956 P

0.9640 112 1.1K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0490 10 10 K

0.0500 138 148 K

0.0510 200 348 K

0.0570 169 517 K

US Recession by end of 2026

ERROR

ID: LIQ_US_RECESSION_2026

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_BRAZIL_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ARGENTINA_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_FRANCE_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ENGLAND_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_QF

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Portugal reach the Final at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_PORTUGAL_FINAL

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_R16

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_SF

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Get divergence alerts

When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by more than 5 points on the same event, we’ll send you the event and both prices. No noise, only signal.