Where the two biggest prediction markets disagree

MISMATCH These events do not represent the same underlying economic outcome. While both concern Bitcoin price in 2026, the Kalshi event requires >$99 i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1500 543 543 K

0.1400 3.3K 3.8K K

0.1300 5.0K 8.8K K

0.1200 699 9.5K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0400 4 4 P

0.0410 218 222 P

0.0420 614 836 P

0.0430 218 1.1K P

Bitcoin reaches $150k threshold in 2026

ERROR

ID: LIQ_BTC_150K_2026

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Bitcoin reaches $200k threshold in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_200K_2026

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

585

Liquidity

K: KXBTCMAXY-26… P: will-bitcoin…

MISMATCH deadline differs · threshold differs · source differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.4980 52.2K 52.2K P

0.4960 2.8K 55.0K P

0.4950 10 55.1K P

0.4920 1.5K 56.6K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0300 1.8K 1.8K K

0.0400 16.1K 17.9K K

0.0500 20.0K 37.9K K

0.0600 6.0K 43.9K K

Ethereum reaches $4,000 by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ETH_4K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0900

Synthetic

Spread

-200 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

44.4K

Liquidity

K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…

CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events measure the same underlying outcome (ETH > $4,000) with the same directional intent and similar timeframes (end of 2026). Howeve i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1000 491 491 K

0.0900 4.2K 4.7K K

0.0800 350 5.0K K

0.0700 3.3K 8.3K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0800 1.6K 1.6K P

0.0900 439 2.0K P

0.1000 350 2.3K P

0.1100 2.3K 4.7K K

Ethereum reaches $5,000 by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ETH_5K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0445

Synthetic

Spread

-110 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

516.9K

Liquidity

100

K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…

CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events resolve on the same underlying outcome (ETH > $5,000 by end of 2026) with nearly identical deadlines (Jan 1, 2027 vs Dec 31, 202 i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0500 2.2K 2.2K K

0.0400 10.3K 12.5K K

0.0330 363 12.9K P

0.0320 2.3K 15.2K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0390 10 10 P

0.0400 192 203 P

0.0410 250 453 P

0.0420 400 853 P

JD Vance wins 2028 Presidential Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_VANCE

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

633.3K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-jd-vanc…

MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2020 1.0K 1.0K P

0.2010 1.0K 2.1K P

0.2000 696 2.8K P

0.1990 1.3K 4.1K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1000 400 400 K

0.1100 370 770 K

0.1200 500 1.3K K

0.1500 421 1.7K K

Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_NEWSOM

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

520.4K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-gavin-n…

MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1220 501 501 P

0.1210 710 1.2K P

0.1200 205 1.4K P

0.1190 200 1.6K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0400 250 250 K

0.0500 125 375 K

0.0600 501 876 K

0.0700 1 877 K

AOC wins 2028 Presidential Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_AOC

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

591.6K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-alexand…

MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0830 742 742 P

0.0820 30 772 P

0.0810 2.5K 3.2K P

0.0800 5.4K 8.6K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0400 379 379 K

0.0500 681 1.1K K

0.0600 1 1.1K K

0.0700 1 1.1K K

National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_RESERVE_2027

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

4.0K

Liquidity

K: KXBTCRESERVE… P: us-national-…

MISMATCH threshold differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1700 148 148 P

0.1600 153 300 P

0.1500 137 437 K

0.1400 100 537 K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1600 2 2 K

0.1700 52 53 K

0.1800 1.0K 1.1K P

0.1900 491 1.6K P

Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_FED_CUT_2026

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

9.0K

Liquidity

K: KXRATECUT-26… P: will-no-fed-…

MISMATCH deadline differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.8460 2.1K 2.1K P

0.8450 5.4K 7.6K P

0.8440 4.0K 11.6K P

0.8430 849 12.5K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1850 13 13 K

0.1950 978 992 K

0.2040 747 1.7K K

0.2050 12.0K 13.7K K

US Recession by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_US_RECESSION_2026

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

2.1K

Liquidity

K: KXGDP-26JUL3… P: us-recession…

MISMATCH threshold differs · source differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.8800 27 27 K

0.8700 13 40 K

0.8600 15 55 K

0.8500 11 66 K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1300 940 940 P

0.1400 880 1.8K P

0.1500 3.9K 5.7K P

0.1600 700 6.4K P

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_BRAZIL_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ARGENTINA_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_FRANCE_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ENGLAND_WIN

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_QF

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Portugal reach the Final at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_PORTUGAL_FINAL

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_R16

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ERROR

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_SF

Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.

Get divergence alerts

When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by more than 5 points on the same event, we’ll send you the event and both prices. No noise, only signal.